Sweet 16 Week 2, Explained.
After two weeks and 2-5 games (shoutout to Enloe/Rolesville/Athens Drive/Heritage for playing 5 already) from every team, there are finally data points to explain why we put teams where we do. We’ve split our top 16 teams into four tiers and the teams inside each tier are largely interchangeable amongst the teams around them. You can see our Week 2 rankings in the tweet below.
Tier One
Holly Springs (3-1)
The Hawks showed their humanity with a close loss to John Marshall (VA) this past weekend. But a 3-point loss to a top-30 public school in the nation won’t be enough to drop them just yet. With wins over Fuquay-Varina, Leesville Road, and Willow Spring, they have one of the stronger SOSs so far in the young season. Collin Kuhl, Micah Jones, and Ryan Crotty are all three making their cases for conference/county awards. Look for sophomore Will James Jr. and senior Houston Wills to continue to be X-Factors for them as well.
Millbrook (3-1)
Millbrook may have the toughest schedule in the state and if this level of play keeps up it will be extremely hard for us to keep them out of the top spot. They have high-value wins over First Flight, Jordan, and MSA (VA) with their lone loss coming to The Burlington School, one of the best private schools in the state. Colt Langdon is averaging 26.8 PPG and his play style leads me to believe that the volume is sustainable. Jayan Walker has exploded out of the second-star role and given Millbrook two true primary scorers on the same team and it’s working great so far.
Tier Two
Wake Forest (3-0)
Wake Forest had a very strong first week of games, with wins over Green Hope, Riverside-Durham, and Orange. They were our clear number three coming into the season and they took their spot back after these three wins. The Cougars play some of the best team basketball in the state, akin to how 3A Central Cabarrus plays with the Daniel twins. Their unselfish and uber-athletic style of play can allow them to put up points in bunches, as shown in their 74 PPG so far. They also have a ton of potential on the defensive end for the same reasons. Sam Frye and Kavon Simmons are the X-Factors for this team as they look to push for the top spot.
Enloe (5-0)
Enloe has one of the more complete rotations in the East region and that’s been prevalent in their start to the season. With the closest game they’ve played so far being a 9-point win over South Garner in their season opener, Enloe has been dominant and has quality wins over Pinecrest and Rolesville to boost their résumé. Ethan Montague is playing up to expectations and senior Darian Chamblee is an early-season stock riser to keep an eye on.
Panther Creek (2-0)
Panther Creek secured one of the biggest wins of the season amongst Wake County teams, with their 73-63 win over Jordan on Friday night. With 11 players playing legit rotation minutes so far, they are the deepest team in the county by a good amount. They have guard play, size, youth, and experience. Chris Uwayo and Caleb Surgers alternated having dominant games and if there’s ever a night where both of them are on, we might see something special. Don’t be surprised to see this team finish the year with less than five losses.
Green Level (3-0)
The Gators were underrated by a handful of people coming into the season, with one coach in their conference telling us that they predicted Green Level to finish 6th. They are deep and balanced across the board and don’t rely too heavily on any one player. One of just seven Wake County schools left undefeated, Green Level has had impressive wins over Willow Spring and Rolesville. Players like Isaac Ericksen, Israel Eatman, Trey Manhertz, Tye Cain, and Braden O’Donnell have been in midseason form so far. A tricky road trip to Athens Drive will be another chance for them to secure a quality win.
Garner (2-0)
Another one of the deepest teams in the county, the Garner Trojans dominated in their first game against Knightdale and then had a great come-from-behind win over Wakefield. Because of their lack of dominance in their only game this week and the success of the other teams in this tier, they fell two spots in our rankings. Ghab Scott is one of my favorite breakout candidates and Chris Crudup is a heavily underrated name on a state level. This team is fun, scrappy, and dangerous and are heavy favorites to win the GNRC. The 12/9 matchup with Millbrook should tell us a lot more about how good they are.
Tier Three
Broughton (4-0)
Broughton is off to an undefeated start but struggled to put teams away this past week. With a 2-point win over Apex and a 7-point win over Heritage, the Caps showed they were vulnerable. They play as a team and guard Hayes Carlin has improved his stock a lot, highlighted by his 17 point game against Apex. Broughton has the pieces to move up in future rankings but they will need to get through a tough week with three games in four days, highlighted by a Tuesday night showdown against Wakefield. Manning Lasso, James Parrish, and the aforementioned Hayes Carlin are emerging as a big three right now and it will be interesting to see who else steps up.
Leesville Road (3-1)
The Pride have had as good a start to the season as anyone, cruising to wins over Wakefield, Heritage, and Green Hope, and giving Holly Springs a tough test. Grady Whitt has been outstanding so far and Hayes Carlin is picking up where he left off last year. They have a great chance to move up this week as they play Wake Forest on the road. A win there would see them seriously shake up the top of the county.
Fuquay-Varina (3-1)
The Bengals have done what they were supposed to do so far, beating Middle Creek twice and getting a nice road win against Apex. They looked like the better team against Holly Springs for the first 8-10 minutes, before the Hawks woke up and took care of them. A large part of their top 10 ranking hinges on the two statistical anomalies on their team, Dylan Setzer and Jake Hart. Dylan Setzer is averaging over 23 PPG and is making a serious case to be the best shooter in the NCHSAA. He has made 18 threes in 4 games (his 4.5 3PG is 1st in the state) and is shooting a staggering 58% from deep. Jake Hart is leading the state in assists with 9 per game. Having two state leaders on the same team is rare, especially when they aren’t a top 3 team in the area. Winning against Holly Springs or teams above them losing is the Bengals path to moving up this list.
Tier Four
Sanderson (4-0)
Sanderson is a tricky team to evaluate so far in this young season. They have one of the weakest SOSs in the entire county but they’ve also handled business, with their smallest margin of victory being 11 points. The way their schedule lines up, they will be favorites in their next four games. Nathan Fife has been playing like the county POY so far with his teammates Patrick Dalton, Tommy Lyon, and Jay Peterson all having breakout seasons so far. Their lack of depth is a little bit concerning but I don’t think that will become an issue until conference play. This team has a very possible path to 8-0 and we will see how legit they are when they get past Christmas.
Wakefield (1-3)
The Wolverines have seen the most positive movement in this poll since the preseason and it mainly has to do with how tough their schedule has been. With a win over a scrappy Clayton team and then close, tough losses to Garner and Leesville Road, they’re already battle tested. They have Broughton, Green Hope, and Athens Drive this week, and going 3-0 would mean a nice bump into the top 10. Cameron Spencer is someone to watch for this team going forward as he’s been a strong presence for them early in this season, leading them in scoring and shooting it well from the outside.
Willow Spring (2-2)
The Storm have had a weird start to the season with two blowout losses and two 3-point wins. Averaging 46.3 PPG as a team, they are one of the lesser scoring offenses in the area. Their defense has gotten the job done against similarly talented teams but they will need someone to emerge as a serious scoring threat to break into the top 10 at some point this year. Something kind of fun to monitor for the Storm is that sophomore Graham Moose has hit three game winners in his career at the school. The school has just six wins so Moose’s clutch shooting has accounted for half of their all-time wins.
Rolesville (1-4)
Rolesville has had a rough start to the season, which is puzzling considering the talent level on the roster. Isaac Tatum has been scoring well, albeit not very efficiently, and the rest of the roster has solid enough individual numbers. But starting the year with four consecutive losses and a close win over a tough East Wake squad was probably not what the Rolesville collective had in mind. They hold onto their top 16 status because of their potential and talent but they will need to start stacking wins soon or they’ll fall out. Sophomore Kazim Oladipo is a name to monitor as he’s been one of their more productive pieces here in the early part of the year.
East Wake (1-1)
The Warriors were one of the teams that got a late start to the year, playing their first games after Thanksgiving. Being the only 3A team in the county, these early contests against 4A competition mean a lot for their SOS as their conference isn’t as tough as the 4A ones in the area. They mostly capitalized on their first week of games, beating Corinth Holders and losing a close one to Rolesville. They have a huge week ahead of them with games against Clayton and Wake Forest on Monday and Tuesday. Senior Tamari Rowland was great in the two games this week, scoring 37 points across them.
Cardinal Gibbons (0-4)
The Crusaders have been the victims of a hard schedule and injury bug combination to start the year. The duo of Xavier DeBerry and Connor Higginbotham have both been battling injuries and this should be a much improved team when they consistently play together. This team has a chance to grab two wins this week, with games against Clayton and SE Raleigh on the slate. Freshman Aiden Smalls and sophomore Cash McSweeney have lived up to the hype so far and could be the X-factors that this team needs. Junior Elijah Omar has also helped his own stock a ton.
Outside Teams To Monitor
Apex Friendship (0-2)
The Patriots lost their two games by a combined four points. If those games swing the other way we might be having a different conversation about them right now. They play SE Raleigh and Green Hope this week.
Athens Drive (2-3)
An 0-2 week saw the Jaguars tumble in the updated rankings, but that doesn’t mean that they are any less talented. The big 3 of Dynaven Lyons, Noah Hinton, and Jani Vanolten are playing well right now and with games against Green Level and Wakefield this week, they have a chance to shoot up the rankings again.
Knightdale (2-2)
With the best record out of the unranked teams, Knightdale is slowly building a case that screams top 16. They have a balanced rotation and that should help them avoid slumps throughout the year. They play South Garner, Sanderson, and Enloe this week and going 2-1 or 3-0 would see them fly up the board.