Sweet 16 Week 9, Explained.
Another hectic week passes and Wake County is as confusing as ever. Here’s our best effort to break it all down.
Tier One
Millbrook (13-6)
Millbrook had tough wins against Knightdale and Wake Forest to finish the first half of conference play undefeated. This team has improved as the season has progressed in large part thanks to the elevated play of Gabe Cerda and Kyrie Heredia. Cerda’s production has sky-rocketed, starting at The John Wall, and continuing into the new year. He’s averaging 14.9 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 4.4 SPG since Christmas day. Heredia has been a constant stabilizing force for this team all year, consistently flirting with double-doubles and bringing activity and versatility to the defensive end. Millbrook ends January with games against Heritage (1/27) and Rolesville (1/31), so it isn’t likely that they’ll lose their top ranking anytime soon.
Holly Springs (14-4)
The Hawks’ winning streak now sits at six games, with only one of those (the PC double OT thriller) coming within 17 points. Micah Jones is back and 100% healthy and Holly Springs is rolling. Sophomores Will James Jr. and Jake Cackovic have continued to improve throughout the season and this is one of the best-coached teams in the state. They’ve continued to sharpen their defensive roles and have the athleticism and versatility to guard anyone that they play. They have a huge game against Green Level this Wednesday before turning around and playing a tricky Cary team on Friday. A 2-0 week would all but wrap up the SWAC regular season race.
Tier Two
Panther Creek (12-6)
Panther Creek beat Sanderson in the Athens Drive MLK Showcase in one of the uglier games of the season. Two efficient offenses clawing out a 52-45 final score was definitely an interesting result, but it provided more evidence that the Catamounts’ combination of size and depth can win them games against strong opponents. The 10-12 man rotation that Coach Robinson consistently plays will begin shrinking in the next few weeks as they prepare for another deep playoff run. One player to look out for is junior big man Logan Ware. Ware is second on the team in blocks per game (1.3) and is shooting 43% from three on over an attempt per game. If he can increase his shooting volume while maintaining efficiency, Ware could be a lethal two-way player to look out for as we end this season and as we look towards the 2023-24 year.
Sanderson (15-3)
Sanderson plays a style of basketball that allows them to control games and use their execution, IQ, and shotmaking to put opponents away. This works thanks to superstar sophomore Nate Fife and his ability to score, pass, and defend at a high level. Coach Roberson’s system has worked wonders and will continue to do so as we get closer and closer to the postseason. The only teams to beat the Spartans are teams that can consistently be successful in chaotic situations; Wake Forest, Athens Drive, and Panther Creek are all great in chaos. Sanderson has a rematch with Athens Drive coming this Thursday, a game that will have big implications on the final CAP-6 standings.
Leesville Road (12-4)
Leesville Road dropped one to Sanderson last week before turning around and beating Enloe to stay within striking distance in the conference. This team reminds me of Apex Friendship the past few years in the way they share the ball, shoot at a high clip, and the family-like culture that they bring every game. Leesville will play Broughton and Cardinal Gibbons to end the month and they’ll need to go 2-0 to stay in the CAP-6 race.
Garner (15-3)
Garner dropped a tough one to Fuquay-Varina on Friday night, missing a shot at the buzzer that would’ve sent the game to overtime. The Trojans currently hold a half-game lead in the GNRC with six left to play. The only game that should give them trouble is their rematch against Clayton, a team they beat by just two points in the first meeting. Tanner Mikulecky should already have first-team all-conference locked up, acting as a clutch scorer, versatile defender, and senior leader for this young Garner team. Speaking of, this team only has one senior in their rotation (Mikulecky) and is looking like a top team in the state already, imagine what they’ll look like next year and the year after. Scary thought.
Wakefield (13-6)
Outside of their embarrassing 33-point loss to Millbrook, Wakefield has been one of the top few teams in Wake County in 2023. They’ve beaten Wake Forest, Green Level, and Knightdale all in the past couple of weeks. Cameron Spencer and Syncere Burnette have been serious breakout contributors, with Spencer leading the team in scoring and Burnette leading in assists. Wakefield will have a quiet week this week with just a Friday night matchup with Rolesville to look forward to. Next week, however, will decide which direction the Wolverines’ season goes, with rematches against Wake Forest and Millbrook that will have serious implications in both conference standings and future playoff seedings.
Tier Three
Green Level (14-4)
Green Level had their worst week of the season this past week, going 1-2 and losing to rival Cary in double OT. The absence of junior guard Tye Cain hurt them in that loss, but freshman Garrett Midkiff (who started in Cain’s place) had the best game of his young career, putting up 9p, 4r, and 4a before fouling out. The backcourt of Israel Eatman (2025) and Tye Cain (2024) continue to compete with each other for SWAC Breakout POY, with both of them having incredibly impressive seasons. Green Level plays current SWAC leader Holly Springs on Wednesday in a game that was supposed to happen about three weeks ago. They’ll play the Hawks twice in the next seven days along with a game against Apex in between them. Going 3-0 in that stretch would see them alone at the top of the conference and in control of the rest of their season.
Wake Forest (12-7)
This Wake Forest team can win and lose against anyone. They had Millbrook on the ropes for a bit before losing to them this past Friday, a game that would’ve saw the Cougars snag a much needed conference win. Speaking of the NAC, they currently sit tied for third place at 2-3, with Knightdale holding the head-to-head tiebreaker at the moment. Being three games back with five to play, their chances of winning the conference are all but over but, they can still take a good amount of positive momentum into the postseason. They currently are the 14th ranked team in the NCHSAA 4A East RPI rankings and with games against Knightdale and Wakefield to end the month, two wins could see them flirt with the top 10. Jaevian Alston and Dashaun Grant have been legitimate stars while Nigel Lucas has been one of the best connecting pieces in the county.
Enloe (12-6)
Enloe is in dead last in the CAP-6 standings right now, with a record of 1-4. In those four losses they’ve lost by a combined 22 points or 5.5 points per game. Clearly the Eagles are competing in these games and while they aren’t turning these close games into wins right now, there’s no reason to give up on them yet. They’ve beaten Broughton, Clayton, Pinecrest, and Knightdale (twice and one of those was by 50) this season and have had close losses to some very, very good teams. Ethan Montague has been elite, Gift Moses is one of the best rim protectors around, and like Nigel Lucas mentioned above, Owen Pederson is one of the best connecting pieces in the county. Enloe will still have to win games to prove that they belong in the top 10 and deserve a playoff spot, but I have full confidence that they can turn it around. They play Cardinal Gibbons and Athens Drive before the end of the month.
Tier Four
Fuquay-Varina (10-7)
Is Fuquay-Varina the hottest team in Wake County not named Millbrook or Holly Springs? They murdered South Garner by 27 and then turned around and beat Garner on the road to give the Trojans their first (and probably only) conference loss of the year. Jake Hart has been unreal recently, putting up a ridiculous 21p, 14r, 10a, 6s, and 2b game against Garner. He currently leads the state in triple-doubles with three on the season (all coming in 2023). Dylan Setzer is shooting 43% from deep on almost seven attempts a game, making him statistically one of the top few shooters in 4A. Andrew Schneider is averaging 18 PPG and 13 RPG in conference play so far while shooting a promising 68% from the line. This big three is leading a red-hot Bengal team into a rivalry game against cross-town Willow Spring, a game that FV will be favored to win.
Broughton (8-11)
The strength of the CAP-6 was shown last week, with Broughton taking down Athens Drive in a game that both teams needed to win. The Caps are now 2-3 through the first half of conference and replicating that performance on the back half should be all they need to sneak into the playoffs as a dangerous 30-32 seed. McCallum Wright has cooled off a bit since his December run but Hayes Carlin has picked up a ton of scoring slack, emerging as the teams top option on the perimeter. In the preseason we wrote about Carlin in our Watchlist series, in which we called on him to shoot more threes this year. He’s done just that, currently sitting at 48/120 (40%) through 18 games compared to last years 35/113 (31%) in 24 games. The increase in shooting has helped both Carlin’s stock and the Broughton offense.
Athens Drive (10-8)
Athens Drive has made no sense all season. They started out 2-5, including a 5-game losing streak. They followed that with a 7-1 stretch that carried them to their current record of 10-8. They’re tied 2nd in the CAP-6 with just a game separating them and first place Sanderson. Their big three has made up the majority of their offense with Noah Hinton and Dynaven Lyons leading the way and Jani Vanholten being a strong connecting piece (such a role is becoming a theme in Wake County). Freshman Marcus Green is averaging 3.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.9 BPG. This kind of balanced impact from a player that young is usually a positive indicator of what’s to come. The 2026 prospect impacts winning and should end up being the face of Athens Drive over the next few years.
Apex Friendship (11-8)
Apex Friendship lost to Holly Springs again last Friday and will need to beat Panther Creek this Friday to make up for it. This team has a higher ceiling than other teams with similar talent due to their unselfish style of play, good coaching, and their ability to have multiple players score in bunches. Their floor is also a bit lower than others due to their lack of consistency. They’ve lost to Middle Creek, Green Hope, and East Chapel Hill, three losses that suggest the Pats be ranked even lower. They’ve beaten Wilson Prep, Panther Creek, and Cary, three wins that suggest the Pats are right to hold a spot in the Sweet 16 and maybe should be even higher. At some point this season, this team is going to play with consistency, it’s just a matter of how good they’re playing when it happens.
Tier Five
East Wake (11-6)
East Wake has scored more than 50 points just once since their overtime loss to Wake Forest almost two months ago. The possessions are low in every game they play and they’ve dominated their conference so far with that play style. At this pace, Noah Hamilton will probably win CPOY or at least be the best player on the best team. They are currently the 24th ranked team in 3A East but would get a top 10 seed due to their conference champion status. Because of their weaker schedule relative to the rest of the county, just one loss would be enough to drop them from the entire rankings.
Cary (8-11)
Cary has been a fun surprise this year, beating Green Level and Apex to move into fourth in the SWAC with just five games to play. This is their first time being ranked and have been slowly climbing since Week 6. They started the year with very little expectations and have already exceeded those. Now, the Imps look to secure a playoff berth and a 3-2 finish to the year could very well do that. Senior Brishawn Haywood has been scoring in bunches and should be a serious prospect for JUCOs and D3 schools to consider. Two sport star Zach Chavis has really made a jump in production since last year as well. The 6’10” Timmy McLoughlin impresses us most with his passing ability, averaging 3.1 APG and ranking second on the team. Cary has a chance to take down Holly Springs this Friday in a game that could shake up the conference in a big way.
Outside Teams to Monitor
Southeast Raleigh (again)
The Bulldogs are the only team with 10+ wins or a 0.500 record that isn’t ranked this week. They are tied for third in the GNRC and most likely won’t drop below fourth in the final standings. They have a difficult schedule to finish the year with games against Clayton, Fuquay-Varina, and Garner in their final five. Immanuel McClain has been great this season, but Southeast needs more consistency from the secondary producers.
South Garner
The Titans are currently 4-5 in conference play, with wins over four different opponents. While their playoff hopes might be all but gone, don’t be surprised if they finish fourth in the GNRC as this program has steadily improved their conference production over each season. This could be the first time they secure a winning conference record and a top-four seed in the conference tournament.